GC9GH64 2 Aces
Type: Mystery | Size: Other | Difficulty: | Terrain:
By: 3 Williams Kidz @ | Hide Date: 09/19/2021 | Status: Available
Country: United States | State: Colorado
Coordinates: N38° 59.752 W105° 03.215 | Last updated: 06/19/2022 | Fav points: 0
             

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The cache is not at the above coordinates; solve the puzzle below to get a solution that you can then verify with the checker below this description.

STEALTH REQUIRED -- SEE BELOW

 

The difficulty of 3 is based on both the puzzle and the stealth requirement at the cache location.

On September 12, 2021, I (Glenn) hosted the Community Celebration Event in Woodland Park (GC8Q9GG) and gave away prizes based on a card draw.  This is how it went:

19 people logged "Will Attend".  I had a deck of cards and selected two aces and 17 other cards, not aces.  Event attendees could see all the cards which were then turned over and mixed up.  Attendees then each picked one card.  Draw an ace, you win a grand prize !  Draw any card other than an ace, pick from the other prizes, and the card that was drawn was removed from the cards that were then shown to the attendees including the next person that arrived, so they could see all the cards to draw from, including the two aces.  Turn the cards over again, mix them up, and the process continued.

Surprisingly, 15 cards were drawn without anyone drawing an ace.  Then, R&B CO arrived and drew the first ace, from what was four cards, two aces and two cards that were not aces.

After the event, our good geo-friend Kerewin0430, in her log entry, wrote: When you publish a cache asking us to solve for the mathematical probability of that scenario happening, we will all get a good chuckle! 

Well, since you insist !  Here is that probability puzzle:  What is the probability that the first of two aces drawn would be on the 16th draw?  The remaining 3 cards drawn are not part of the calculation.  That probability is -- ONE OUT OF [SOME NUMBER].

 

The magnetic nano cache is at N 39 00.XYZ  W 105 03.XYZ where XYZ is that number.  That number does not have a decimal.

 

If the number has only one digit such as the probability is 1 out of 2, then XYZ is 002; 

If the number has two digits such as the probability is 1 out of 23, then XYZ is 023

If the number has three digits such as the probability is 1 out of 234, then XYZ is 234

 

The probability does not have four digits.

 

STEALTH REQUIRED:  NOT ON PRIVATE PROPERTY.  Once you get success on the puzzle checker, you can do a street mapping search and see that there is ONLY ONE PLACE for a magnetic nano and that place is RED.  This is NOT a well traveled street, so I would imagine all of the local residents there know each other which means if you stop there and spend any amount of time, you will likely draw attention.  So, I have made it easy to find once you get there -- it is on the side closest to the street, towards the bottom, on the underside, to the left of a large nut and bolt.  When I placed it, I pulled up right next to it, opened my car door, stepped out, placed it, got back in the car and left.

I could only find one spot in the local area that had the XYZ in the latitude and longitude, and that location could not host anything other than a micro or smaller, in my opinion.  

Good luck !

 

CONGRATULATIONS to ernie66 for getting FTF a mere 47 minutes after the cache published (and he doesn't live in Woodland Park) !!!

 

Additional Waypoints

09/21/2021 By jherber
TFTC Well, this was a clever puzzle. It has been too long since I had to use these statistics and I initially misread the question. This led to the checker being contrary. I then thought I knew what I was looking for was in a limited area so I headed out to do it the hard way. Then I was spotted by Ernie who knew where he was going. If I had not been looking at my phone, I might have recognized him and could have followed him to the correct GZ. After he logged his FTF, I cancelled my search and went back to the computer. After realizing I had misread the puzzle, I attempted to solve it again. I again had trouble getting the answer so today I continued my search the hard way. By this time I also realized I had made another incorrect assumption as to what I was looking for. After sorting all this out I found it at the last place I looked and the first place I stopped. I was happy to be second to find and will give this a Favorite point for my oblique adventure.

09/20/2021 By Kerewin0430
Solved! Ha! Great puzzle and story behind it! I'll sign this one eventually. :-)

09/20/2021 By ernie66
Who can resist a fun math puzzle? Found today at 10:10am.

I turned onto the wrong street at first and followed a car with Texas plates driving slowly. Eventually, he pulled over and as I passed, it looked like he was studying his phone... on the way to this cache?? I guess when FTF is on the line, we see geocacher in everyone, even normal lost people .

Arriving at GZ, I saw the cache immediately and got it open only to see that square #1 of the log had already been filled in by 2 Aces. I was too late! So I signed in square #2. On the way back home, I wondered who 2 Aces is as the geocaching handle didn't sound familiar. A tourist, I guess. Then I realized 2 Aces is the name of the cache and apparently I was FTF after all! D'oh .

Thanks for the math puzzle - adding a favorite!

09/20/2021 By IgnotusPeverell
Published